The Running Back Conundrum: Are Record-Breaking Deals for Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs Worth the Risk?
Let’s start with a bold statement: the NFL’s approach to running back contracts is a masterclass in cognitive dissonance. On one hand, teams and fans alike chant the mantra, ‘Don’t pay running backs!’ On the other, we’re on the brink of seeing two young stars, Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, potentially shatter the market with record-setting deals. Personally, I think this disconnect highlights a broader issue in the league—the tension between short-term impact and long-term sustainability.
What makes this particularly fascinating is the timing. Both Robinson and Gibbs are coming off impressive seasons, but they’re also entering the phase of their careers where the NFL’s running back curse tends to strike. You know the drill: heavy workloads, wear and tear, and a sudden decline in performance. From my perspective, this isn’t just about whether these players deserve the money—it’s about whether teams are willing to gamble on a position that has historically been a financial minefield.
The Case for Robinson: A Once-in-a-Generation Talent?
Bijan Robinson’s 2025 season was nothing short of extraordinary. With over 2,200 scrimmage yards and jaw-dropping efficiency, he’s positioned himself as the league’s top running back at just 24 years old. One thing that immediately stands out is his versatility—he’s not just a ground threat; he’s a weapon in the passing game too. This raises a deeper question: Is Robinson the exception to the rule?
In my opinion, the Falcons are facing a high-stakes decision. Robinson’s projected $87.6 million deal would make him the highest-paid running back in NFL history. But here’s the kicker: what many people don’t realize is that his workload in the first three seasons (1,003 touches) mirrors the kind of usage that has derailed careers like Todd Gurley’s and Ezekiel Elliott’s. If you take a step back and think about it, the Falcons are essentially betting that Robinson will age like Derrick Henry—a player who defied the odds—rather than becoming another cautionary tale.
Gibbs: The Slightly Less Shiny Star
Jahmyr Gibbs, on the other hand, had what some might call a ‘down’ season in 2025, yet he still racked up 1,800 scrimmage yards and 18 touchdowns. A detail that I find especially interesting is that Gibbs, like Robinson, is just 24 and has already logged 916 touches. The Lions are in a similar predicament: do they reward his early success with a massive contract, or do they play it safe?
My model projects Gibbs’ deal at $79.6 million, slightly below Robinson’s. But here’s where it gets tricky: teams often overpay for potential, and Gibbs’ market value could easily surpass my projection. What this really suggests is that the Lions might be tempted to outbid themselves, hoping Gibbs will maintain his elite level of play. But history tells us that’s a risky bet.
The Historical Context: A Coin Toss of Success and Failure
If there’s one thing the NFL has taught us, it’s that running back contracts are a coin toss. Some, like Christian McCaffrey’s, have worked out—though not without asterisks. McCaffrey signed a lucrative extension with the Panthers, but injuries limited his impact before he was traded to the 49ers. Others, like Gurley’s and Elliott’s, ended in disaster.
What many people don’t realize is that the success stories often come with caveats. Derrick Henry, for instance, is an outlier who thrived despite a massive workload. But for every Henry, there are countless others who faded into obscurity after their second contracts. This raises a deeper question: Are Robinson and Gibbs more like Henry, or are they the next Gurley?
The Risk-Reward Equation: Is It Worth It?
Here’s where I stand: I’m not a fan of handing out massive contracts to running backs, but I can be convinced if the guaranteed money is structured intelligently. The problem, as I see it, is that Robinson and Gibbs are still on their rookie deals through 2027. By the time their new contracts kick in, they’ll have accumulated another 600-700 touches. Will they still be the same game-breaking players?
If we assume they’ll make around $20 million per year, a significant portion of that—$40-$50 million—will be guaranteed. That money will hit the cap in 2028 and 2029, right when their performance could start to decline. Personally, I think that’s a lot of risk for a position that doesn’t always age well.
The Broader Implications: A Shift in NFL Strategy?
This situation isn’t just about Robinson and Gibbs—it’s about the NFL’s evolving approach to running backs. Teams are increasingly relying on committees and cheap alternatives, yet here we are, potentially seeing two record-breaking deals. What this really suggests is that the league still values elite talent at the position, even if it’s a risky investment.
From my perspective, this could signal a shift in how teams evaluate running backs. Maybe the focus will move from pure production to durability and versatility. Or maybe teams will continue to overpay for short-term gains, hoping to strike gold. Either way, it’s a fascinating development that could reshape the market for years to come.
Final Thoughts: A Gamble Worth Taking?
So, should the Falcons and Lions hand out these record-setting deals? In my opinion, it depends on their risk tolerance. If they’re willing to bet that Robinson and Gibbs will defy the odds, then go for it. But if history is any guide, these contracts could end up being more trouble than they’re worth.
One thing is certain: the NFL loves a good gamble, and these deals are about as high-stakes as it gets. Personally, I’ll be watching with a mix of fascination and skepticism. Because in the end, the only thing more unpredictable than a running back’s career is the NFL’s willingness to pay for it.
